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October 1st, 2025, the government shutdown left thousands of federal employees furloughed and uncertain about when their next paycheck would be. Understanding the level of impact federal workers face from these shutdowns could help provide clues on how to alleviate their struggles and what the future of the federal workforce looks like. This paper seeks to identify the level of impact federal employees are facing from shutdowns by comparing the effects of previous prolonged shutdowns on federal employees. To do so, this paper will look at workload strains, employee turnover, and agencies affected. Further, there will be an evaluation of the individual impact of the shutdown by looking at employee morale and retention. By comparing the effects of previous extensive shutdowns, the government can identify common issues that arise from government shutdowns and take proactive steps to avoid such conditions in future shutdowns. ��The paper will utilize the 1995 and 2018 shutdowns as case studies of previous shutdowns to compare the impacts of the previous shutdowns.

On December 16th, 1995, the government shutdown after a continuing resolution expired and negotiations over the budget failed. This led to 284,000 federal workers being furloughed, with another 465,000 continuing to work under no pay status (Congressional Research Service, 2023, p. 20). Two pay periods were missed in the 21-day partial shutdown. Due to this being the first prolonged shutdown, federal services were not prepared and faced severe strain due to the shutdown. One example of this was the Social Security Administration (SSA). The SSA quickly realized they did not have enough staff to answer phone calls, issue social security cards, process claims, and approve changes of address. This combination of factors led the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to make an exception and allow over 49,000 workers to return to work (Congressional Research Service, 2023, pp. 39-40).

Unfortunately, the case of the Social Security Administration was not an exception. Several more agencies were disrupted and unprepared. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) did not take new patients, and calls were not answered. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stopped surveillance of diseases. 368 National Park Service Sites closed, with an estimated loss of 7 million visitors. Visas and passports went unprocessed, with 20,000 to 30,000 applications by foreigners going unprocessed each day. Over 200,000 US applications for passports went unprocessed. Federal contractors lost $3.7 billion in contracts, over 20% of the total worth of Federal contracts in DC (Brass, 2011, p. 17).

As the economic costs reached hundreds of millions and major federal service disruptions took place, all parties were forced to come to the negotiating table. This led Republicans to accept President Clinton’s concessions on the budget rather than continue to hold out for larger spending cuts. The shutdown officially ended January 6th, 1996, lasting 21 days. The final budget negotiations for the fiscal year of 1996 were completed shortly afterwards.

December 22nd, 2018, the government shut down as President Trump and Democratic leadership could not agree on a continuing resolution due to an impasse over providing funding for the building of a border wall. This led to over 380,000 federal workers being furloughed, and 420,000 continuing to work under no pay status (Congressional Budget Office, 2019, p. 4). In a study conducted by the Office of Personnel Management, 46% of respondents reported being impacted by the partial shutdown. Of these respondents, the most common reported impact was large delays at work (67%) and reduced customer service in federal services (48%). Some other common complaints included missed deadlines (46%), unmanageable workload (30%), and cutbacks on in-progress projects (25%) (Office of Personnel Management, 2019, p. 15).

The 2018 shutdown affected more agencies than the 1995-96 shutdown, but it hit scientific agencies particularly hard. NASA had to furlough 95% of its workforce, and the sudden halt of projects and inspections led to $1 million in damages on in-progress projects (American Oversight, 2020). The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also report that most of their activities were suspended, with nearly every scientific research project indefinitely suspended. Additionally, USGS and NOAA reported difficulties hiring and retaining employees due to concerns about work pauses from the shutdown.

The aviation industry was also hit hard by the 2018 shutdown. In a survey conducted by Professional Aviation Safety Specialists, they found that most air traffic controllers reported large decreases in morale and felt “unappreciated and expendable.” Following the shutdown, the aviation industry hit a 30-year low in hiring new air traffic controllers in 2019 (The Partnership for Public Service, 2019, p. 11). The aviation industry does not share these concerns alone; the majority of federal agencies report concerns that prolonged shutdowns would dissuade young professionals from joining the federal workforce.

Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers began to not come to work, and travel disruptions ensued. Immigration courts faced record levels in backlog cases (Transaction Records Access Clearinghouse, 2019). Polling showed the public blamed the Trump administration for the shutdown. Further, 800,000 federal employees were on the verge of missing their third paycheck in a row. These factors led to the Trump administration making an agreement on a short-term funding measure without funding for the building of the wall. The government officially reopened on January 25, 2019, marking a 35-day shutdown.

The two previous extensive shutdowns have demonstrated that the effects of shutdowns are not evenly distributed amongst federal agencies and employees. The most common issue federal workers face during a shutdown is the backlog of work, and the subsequent spike in workload when the government suddenly reopens. Additionally, prolonged delays in paychecks leave federal employees increasingly disgruntled, often driving them to pursue other employment. The 2018 shutdown was distinct from the 1995 shutdown, as it involved a larger and more complex federal system. This led to adverse effects across all federal agencies, but scientific agencies (NOAA, NASA, USGS) faced large amounts of furlough (up to 95%) and project delays/cancellations. Further, studies have shown that within agencies, federal personnel are affected differently based on seniority and peer preference.

In a study conducted by William G. Resh at Georgia State �Թ���, they sought to understand the level of impact the 2018 shutdown had on the federal workforce. Specifically, they wanted to evaluate the connection between furlough rates and separation rates of the federal workforce. In conducting this study, Resh found that the shutdown led to a 19% increase in separations, with quit rates rising by 17%. (Resh, Ahn, Wang, & Lee, 2025). However, in this study, there is no simple relationship between the percentage of furloughed employees and separation rates. Instead, the findings suggested that the shutdown’s effect on turnover may also depend on factors such as peer status, performance, and perceived job insecurity. Employees with 10 or more years of service separations only increased by 9%. Meanwhile, employees with less than 10 years of service saw quitting rates rise by 22% and firings increased by a staggering 48%.

This leads to the finding that the federal workforce is likely to feel worse effects from the 2025 shutdown than previous shutdowns. Analyzing the previous shutdowns revealed that the shutdown in 2018 had greater adverse effects since the federal government had grown in scope and size since 1995. Additionally, federal agencies are still dealing with post-COVID backlogs, staffing shortages, and high retirement rates, and now face the spike in workload since the government reopened in November. The TSA staffing shortages became a national issue in 2018, and they became a national issue again in 2025 when flights began to be cancelled or delayed. The data shows that workers under 30 are disadvantaged in federal jobs during shutdowns and, as a result, are turning away from the federal sector. In 2019, 6% of federal employees were under 30, a decline from 9% in 2010 (The Partnership for Public Service, 2019, p. 6). If the two previous prolonged shutdowns have taught us anything, the federal workforce will feel the effects of the record-breaking 2025 shutdown for months, and its employee retention, recruitment, and workload may take even longer to recover.

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References

American Oversight. (2020, January 23). In the documents: How the 2018-2019 government shutdown affected federal science agencies.
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Brass, C. T. (2011). Shutdown of the federal government: Causes, processes, and effects (CRS Report No. RL34680). Congressional Research Service.
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Congressional Budget Office. (2019, January). The effects of the partial shutdown ending in January 2019 (CBO Publication No. 54937).
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Congressional Research Service. (2023, August 24). Shutdown of the federal government: Causes, processes, and effects (CRS Report No. RL34680). Federation of American Scientists.
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Office of Personnel Management. (2019). Results from the 2019 Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey: Government-wide management report.
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Resh, W. G., Ahn, Y., Wang, W., & Lee, K. E. (2025). Employee turnover effects of the 2018–2019 United States federal government shutdown. Public Administration Review, 1–15.
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The Partnership for Public Service. (2019, September). Shutdown letdown: How the longest shutdown in U.S. history did lasting damage to our government and the people it serves.
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Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. (2019). Immigration court workload in the aftermath of the shutdown (Report No. 546).
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